DEMOCRACY MONEYBALL
BANG-FOR-YOUR-BUCK DONATIONS
TO PROTECT OUR DEMOCRACY
WHAT IS THIS?
Democracy Moneyball is about getting the most bang-for-your-buck from your donations to protect our democracy. Key levers are holding the White House and the U.S. Senate, flipping the U.S. House, and ensuring election integrity. While the stakes couldn’t be higher, we Democrats love to chase the shiny penny, pouring money into high-profile overfunded campaigns that dump your $s into ineffective media buys. Or never even spend the money. You can do better by following these Moneyball principles:
Winnability matters. Sure, we’d love to hold Manchin’s WV Senate seat, but the Democratic candidate will lose by 30 points. And popular Democrats in safe seats will win by large margins, with or without your $s. Avoid lop-sided races.
Timing matters. Early dollars to campaigns fund important priorities (e.g., staff hires, data). But late dollars? Before the 2022 midterms, PA’s John Fetterman was running nationwide World Series ads. Ugh! In 2020, several high-profile U.S. Senate campaigns ended with millions of unspent dollars. Double ugh!
Incremental impact matters. With November 5th looming, visualize your $’s as the last funds coming to a campaign. Focus on underfunded candidates where your $’s can tip the scales by boosting pro-democracy candidates up and down the ballot.
Shifts matter. In June, our only path was a low-likelihood sweep of MI, WI, and PA. Now, AZ, NV, NC, and GA are in play. More choices elevate the importance of moneyball.
The essence of strategy is knowing what to do, and what not to do. This site offers high-impact initiatives that get the most out of your donation. At the risk of being the skunk at the garden party, your donations to Harris/Walz or high-profile candidates will be wasted. They’re gushing money into media buys that fall on fatigued ears and eyes. here’s my take on the solicitations bombarding your phone and email in-box. Yes, the Presidential race is oh-so-close. Yes, we need Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown to win. Yes, we have a decent chance of turning the House blue, needing to win 14 out of 22 toss-up races. Very doable. But be cautious in funding one-off campaigns at this late stage. Maximize your impact. Play Democracy Moneyball.
Moneyball Gallery
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State Democratic Parties
State Democratic Parties do day-in/day-out GOTV work and will make great use of your $’s.
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College Voters
It was a slog to register college voters for a Trump/Biden rematch. How things change! Apathy has turned into election-defining energy.
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Elevating Eighteen
Supporting these 18 candidates is a strategic investment in democracy’s future.
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Yard Signs
Yard signs convey passionate commitment. Many see them. They matter!
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The Military Vote
The National Security Leaders for America are planning a swing-state bus tour. Help make it happen!
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Focus For Democracy
Focus For Democracy convenes weekly one-hour Zoom calls that feature moneyball initiatives toward the goal of saving democracy.
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Red Wine and Blue
Red, Wine, and Blue is a fast-growing group founded by Katie Paris that is engaging and energizing women voters.
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Democracy Defenders
The Democracy Defenders PAC (DDP) is an agile SWAT team blocking voter suppression, boosting turnout, and ensuring election integrity.
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Local Voices
The Pennsylvania Rural Radio Initiative and Local Voices have united to reach critical Pennsylvania rural voters!
STATE DEMOCRATIC PARTIES
State Democratic Parties do day-in/day-out GOTV work, as this video explains.
They are underfunded, get minuscule help from the DNC, and will make great use of your $’s. Donations to Michigan, Wisconsin, and/or Pennsylvania will:
Help Harris/Walz in must-win states,
Help three close U.S. Senate races,
Help eight close U.S. House races, and
Help state-level races (critical if their state’s Presidential vote is contested).
Also, consider supporting state parties in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Stacey Abrams’ Fair Fight in Georgia. AZ and NV have jump-ball Senate seats. The Governor’s race in NC is important. Georgia is ground-zero for Trump’s relentless efforts to subvert the will of voters.
For a large donations, contact me (tdintersmith@gmail.com) for ways to avoid the 3.9% ActBlue fee. Put these state parties at the top of your list!
COLLEGE Voters
It was a slog to register college voters for a Trump/Biden rematch. How things change! Apathy has turned into election-defining energy.
Teddy Landis is a young American who gives us hope for our collective futures. Last year he produced stunning college voter turnout . . . for a special Wisconsin Supreme Court election. WI state party head Ben Wikler notes, “He’s brilliant and astonishingly effective.” Now, Landis’ Student Turnout Projects has hundreds of employees and volunteers registering college voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
With kids coming to campus, now is the perfect time to support this initiative. Their registration techniques sound quirky but work – dorm-storming, study breaks, club drop-ins, catchy stunts, tables in high-traffic plazas. Whatever it takes. They guide prospective voters through ID and registration requirements. They hold hands, from cheerful first encounters through ‘I Voted’ stickers.
The youth vote will decide this election, as it did in 2020. It will lift pro-democracy candidates up and down the ballot. Your dollars go to a pooled fund that’s immediately allocated to high-leverage opportunities. And you’ll support a wave of young patriotic Americans who regain faith in our political processes — like Teddy Landis. BlueWall Moneyball.
Donate online here, or contact Polly Pfeiffer Schleicher at polly@thesvf.org for fee-saving ways to donate. Also, this group is hiring. Encourage young adults fired up to create a better America to apply here for a life-changing experience.
The Elevating Eighteen
Democracy entrepreneur Zak Malamed has impeccable instincts, impressive execution skills, and a winning track record. His The Next 50 initiative has already launched a wave of pro-democracy rising stars. To help us with 2024 moneyball, he’s curated The Elevating Eighteen, a group of inspiring down-ballot swing-state candidates whose underfunded campaigns will:
Make immediate, effective use of your $’s to GOTV
Elevate the prospects of Harris/Walz and U.S. Senate and House candidates
Affect state-level control over election integrity in 2024, and beyond.
You might say, “Why the hell donate to candidates I’ve never heard of?” Well, your funding will help them mobilize thousands of voters, in states where the Presidential election may be decided by a few-thousand votes. They’ll draw incremental voters who elevate Harris/Walz, U.S. House candidates, and five U.S. Senate candidates. So step up and make this moneyball donation, which will be allocated across races pivotal to democracy’s future.
One final note on The Elevating Eighteen. While Democrats chase the shiny penny, anti-democracy forces have played the long game. Effectively. Supporting these 18 candidates is a strategic investment in democracy’s future. The Brennan Center's eye-opening How Congressional Maps Could Change in 2030 report projects that CA, NY, IL, PA, and MI stand to lose 11 U.S. House members (and Presidential electors!), with nine shifting to TX, FL, NC, and GA. So support The Elevating Eighteen!
Yard Signs
My wife and I love taking road trips through rural America. Fun, hidden gems (ask us about Columbus, Indiana!), and damn revealing. Since 2015, we’ve seen jarring numbers of Trump yard signs. No worries, according to the Democratic Party intelligentsia: “Yard signs don’t vote.” Well, yard signs convey passionate commitment. Many see them. They matter.
The eruption of enthusiasm for Kamala Harris sets the stage for a Democratic Party yard-sign rally. There’s the yawner below from the campaign’s official store. An independent group offers the Barbie look. Honestly, neither does it for me.
But I’m mesmerized by this “Joy” sign. In showing it to others, some instantly love it. Some say, “Hey, I’m not sure what it’s is about?” But that’s the point. It starts conversations. It’s not polarizing, unlikely to be vandalized. It sparks curiosity, and invites possibility. If you’re vexed by its ambiguity, you can append your own mini-sign, like “Vote November 5th!”
This not-for-profit grassroots brilliance comes from a remarkable artist (Lisa Barsumian) and her logistics-chomping spouse (Tom Farrell). Kudos to them for a sign that stops people in their tracks, that makes it easy for us to . . . DO SOMETHING! Buy a yard sign today, and have it up by Friday. Share your enthusiasm for the pro-democracy ticket.
And . . . do even more! Reach out to friends in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Tell them why you support Harris/Walz. Include a photo of your yard sign, and encourage them to put one up. Send them a yard sign as a gift. Hey, send them a dozen for their friends and admiring passersby. Spark a joyful grassroots response to those idiotic “Fuck Your Feelings” flags. Help the Harris/Walz campaign go viral in the oft-neglected physical world!
The Military Vote
The National Security Leaders for America is a remarkable volunteer group of retired Admirals, Generals, and senior national security experts. Check them out at www.nsl4a.org. As the election nears, they hope to do a swing-state bus tour with their volunteer leaders advocating for Harris/Walz on local talk radio, local news, and community forums. This could tip the election’s scales. Please, please, please support this important moneyball initiative. They need just $150,000. Send them $500, $1,000, or even match the five digits I gave last week.
A month ago, I visited Arlington National Cemetery. During WWII, my Dad dropped out of high school to enlist in the Navy, barely surviving six fierce Pacific Rim battles. He’s one of the 400,000 patriots buried at ANC, sacred grounds for honoring those who risked their lives to defend our democracy.
Two weeks ago, Donald Trump desecrated these hallowed grounds. For a campaign stunt. In years gone by, the American public – especially current and former military personnel – would have relegated this shameless coward to history’s dustbin. But today, many tune in to ‘news’ sources who bestow hero status on a man described by his own VP as “America’s Hitler.” A man who offers that he’ll encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want.” A man who could well start WWIII.
There are 3.6 million current and former U.S. military personnel in battleground states (MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NC). In 2016, twice as many voted for Trump as HRC. In 2020, Biden drew more military votes than Trump. Surprising, no? And that was before the Insurrection, ANC, and myriad disrespectful inanities.
Imagine large numbers of military voters—and their family members and disaffected Republican friends — voting for pro-democracy Harris/Walz over a military-trashing, democracy-destroying coward. They could, but they need to hear from people they respect and admire. Ads and name-brand politicians won’t be effective.
NSL4A’s volunteers will make a compelling case, cost-effectively, on local channels, in places that matter. None are compensated for their efforts, nor are they professional fund-raisers. They’ve dedicated their lives to serving America, and they’re now willing to go on the road to defend our democracy from “America’s Hitler.” Seems like the least we can do is cover the damn cost of a bus tour.
The all-in costs of NSL4A’s bus tour are tiny compared to the massive sums that donors are pouring into high-profile campaigns running ads that people are sick of seeing. You can do better. Play moneyball. Support respected military leaders who will mobilize patriotic military voters to elect the pro-democracy ticket.
Focus For Democracy
Focus For Democracy convenes weekly one-hour Zoom calls that feature moneyball initiatives toward the goal of saving democracy. Each week, several thousand (!) people participate, and they raise several million dollars for one or two highly-effective initiatives. Co-founder Aaron Frank starts each session with a data-informed case for moneyball donations, explaining how his organization sets priorities by rigorously analyzing an initiative’s cost per net democratic vote. In a recent session, they raised $4,453,720 for their featured groups — Working America and Good to Vote. $4,453,720, in a single one-hour Zoom session. No typo. Moneyball on steroids. I urge you to join one of their events. Contact me if you need help registering. tdintersmith@gmail.com. Be prepared to be blown away, and lend your support!.
Red, Wine and Blue
Red, Wine, and Blue is a fast-growing group founded by Katie Paris that is engaging and energizing women voters. Check out their SWEEP (Suburban Women Engaged, Empowered, and Pissed) Facebook group. In NC alone, they’ve recruited 1,350 mobilizers doing potentially-decisive GOTV work. They are moving the needle in other key states — most notably Pennsylvania and Michigan. Check out this great initiative and consider sending them some $’s. Or, if you’re a suburban mom, join or even start your own chapter!
Democracy Defenders
The Democracy Defenders PAC (DDP) is an agile SWAT team blocking voter suppression, boosting turnout, and ensuring election integrity. They support state parties in swing states with funding, expertise, and enhanced leadership (e.g., Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina). They counter voter suppression efforts with lawsuits and pro bono aid. They provide funds and guidance for downballot races – legislatures, Supreme Courts, and Secretaries of State. Agile, yet strategic. DDC’s spark comes from former Ambassador and White House Ethics czar Norm Eisen. Their all-star team includes Chair Jim Messina and Chief Strategist T.J. Ducklo, with active participation from field leaders Lauren Groh-Wargo, Ben Wikler, and Lavora Barnes. If you donate today, they’ll put your dollars to immediate, high-impact use.
Local Voices
The Pennsylvania Rural Radio Initiative and Local Voices have united to reach critical Pennsylvania rural voters — outreach otherwise not being done.
Founded by PA political Dream Team Shanin Specter, Joe Torsella, and Conor Lamb, the Rural Radio Initiative runs county-by-county radio ads in "media orphan" areas. Their hyper-localized radio-ad campaign highlights economic benefits achieved by Harris/Biden, and sways voters.
This joint effort is ramping up with radio, TV, and digital media buys across crucial counties. They will siphon off Trump voters, help Harris/Walz ‘lose by less’ in rural PA, and win the pivotal Keystone state.
Support the effort at the link below and forward this to others who might support this final push that could well determine the course of history.
“The Essence of Strategy is choosing what not to do.”
– Michael Porter